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Develop Forecasting Predictive Models Improving Coastal and Human Health and Beach Forecasting

Beach Forecasting work in FY11 will take three approaches: in situ measurements, development and application of mechanistic models to quantify relationships between land use, hydrological cycle dynamics, and pollutant loading rates, and development of nested grid models for Phase 2 of CEGLHH’s beach forecast models. The overall purpose of this work is to develop improved methods to estimate the present level of river-induced contamination at the beach, and also to predict beach quality several days in advance. HABS work in FY2011 will be critical to the operational development of the Lake Erie HAB forecast and in determining microcystin concentrations in important human and food-web components. We expect to continue evaluation, validation and modification of the preliminary Lake Erie HAB bulletin in order to finalize the development of an operational forecast, which is the goal for FY2011. 

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